Every number we show you, worked out in the open.

The assumptions

What every projection assumes.

These are the exact assumptions inside the projection engine — the same list shown with every Health Check result. If one of these changes, the figures change, and this page changes with them.

How we project your balance

When you pick a band only, we use long-run return assumptions net of fund fees: Defensive 3.5%, Conservative 4.5%, Balanced 5.5%, Growth 6.5%, Aggressive 7.5% a year (nominal). These sit below the rates prescribed for KiwiSaver annual-statement projections, i.e. they are deliberately conservative. When you pick a specific fund, the projection uses that fund's past 10-year annualised return as the modelling basis (net of fees, before tax; Morningstar KiwiSaver 360). That is an illustration built on a historical record, not a forecast: past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, and the actual outcome will differ.

Dollars shown

All projected balances, incomes and dollar 'cost' figures are shown in today's dollars (real terms), assuming 2.5% annual inflation — they reflect what the money would buy today, not the larger nominal number that will appear on a future statement. Fund returns are before tax: PIE tax at your PIR (10.5%, 17.5% or 28%) will reduce the actual outcome.

Salary and contributions

Your salary is assumed to grow 1% a year above inflation. Employee contributions are your chosen rate of gross salary — the statutory default is 3.5% now, rising to 4% from 1 April 2028. Employer contributions are 3.5% of gross (the statutory minimum, also rising to 4% from 1 April 2028), less Employer Superannuation Contribution Tax at the band matching your salary. Self-employed members are modelled with no employer contribution.

Government contribution

The Government adds 25 cents per $1 you contribute, up to $260.72 per KiwiSaver year, while you are aged 16 to 65, mainly living in NZ, and earning $180,000 or less. Contributing at least $1,042.86 a year collects the full amount. Both salary deductions and voluntary top-ups count. We never credit the contribution past age 65, even if you model a later retirement.

Retirement income

Income figures assume the balance is drawn down in even instalments over 25 years (age 65 to 90), with the remaining balance earning the same return assumption. NZ Super is not included.

The dollar 'cost' figures

Each finding's dollar figure is the modelled difference at your retirement age between your current settings and the fixed version, using the assumptions above — like-for-like return windows only (10-year vs 10-year). They are estimates of what the gap could be if past differences persisted; they are not guaranteed, and gaps between funds usually change over time. Where two findings describe overlapping money — for example, high fees and the return gap those fees help cause (returns are already net of fees) — each finding shows its own figure, but the combined total counts the overlap once.

Data sources

Fund returns: Morningstar KiwiSaver 360 quarterly survey, net of fees, before tax. Fees and fund detail: Sorted Smart Investor. KiwiSaver rules and statistics: Inland Revenue and the Financial Markets Authority. Refreshed quarterly.

How these assumptions relate to our advice

These assumptions describe how the figures are modelled; the recommendations on this page are financial advice from Smiths (FSP712931). The Health Check applies KiwiSaver rules to the inputs you provided and to the providers on our panel — not the whole market. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. To talk through what it means for you, book a free call with the Smiths team. Smiths Insurance & KiwiSaver, FSP712931, licensed financial advice provider.

The June-30 figure

How we calculate the ~$274 million of unclaimed government contributions.

• Working-age members who received $0 government contribution

  775,575 members × $260.72 full entitlement

  ≈ $202M

• Members who received a partial contribution

  471,016 members × ~$152 average shortfall

  ≈ $72M

• Estimated total left unclaimed in the year

  $202M + $72M

  ≈ $274M

Smiths analysis of IRD data, retrieved June 2026. The average shortfall for partial recipients is calculated from IRD’s reported total government-contribution payments against the full entitlement for that group. This is a population-level estimate of forgone entitlements, not a projection of investment returns; individual entitlements depend on age (16–65), residence, income (≤$180,000) and amount contributed.